What Are Player Props?
Player prop bets focus on individual player performance rather than match outcome. Instead of betting on Arsenal to win, you bet on Saka to have 2+ shots on target.
The Premier League offers the deepest player prop markets of any football league. Here's what you need to know.
The Major Markets
Anytime Goalscorer
The most popular player prop market. Bet on a player to score at any point during the match. Own goals don't count.
Key Considerations:
Shots on Target
A player's shot that would go in without a save or block. Crossbar/post doesn't count. Typically offered as Over/Under lines (1.5, 2.5, etc.)
Key Considerations:
Total Shots
All shot attempts regardless of accuracy. Includes shots on target, off target, and blocked shots.
Key Considerations:
To Be Booked (Cards)
Player to receive a yellow or red card during the match. Red cards typically pay out separately.
Key Considerations:
Tackles
Successful tackles completed by a player. Definition varies slightly by data provider.
Key Considerations:
Other Markets Worth Knowing
Assists
Final pass before goal
Fouls Committed
Player commits X fouls
Fouls Won
Player wins X fouls
Goalkeeper Saves
Saves made by keeper
Shots Outside Box
Long-range attempts
Score or Assist
Combined market
Where Edge Comes From
Bookmakers set player prop lines based on season averages and basic position data. Edge emerges when:
Position Changes
A midfielder playing as a striker has different expectations. Bookmakers don't always adjust fast enough.
Recent Form vs Season Average
Season stats lag reality. A striker on a cold streak still has inflated lines based on early-season goals.
Opponent Context
Shot totals against a low block are very different from shots against a high press. Bookmakers underweight this.
The Cerebro Model Advantage
Proppr's Player Bot uses the Cerebro statistical model to identify value in Premier League player props:
Data Window
Last 5 or 10 games (not full season)
Position Modeling
Primary + alternative positions
Minutes Adjustment
Per-90 extrapolation
Opponent Factor
Defensive strength weighted